BTS Won Best Group Four Years Running: Now They're Back for Song of the Year

BTS arrives at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards tonight as the frontrunner for Song of the Year, with awards forecasting site Gold Derby giving the group a 51.4% probability of winning the category, a margin that puts them well ahead of every other contender. The ceremony takes place at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles.

The group's lead single "Swim," from their fifth studio album Arirang, is up against tracks by Ella Langley, Madonna, Sabrina Carpenter, Olivia Dean, PinkPantheress, and Raye, as well as "Golden" by Huntrix, the fictional girl group from Netflix's animated film KPop Demon Hunters. Gold Derby notes that Raye is the closest challenger at 23.1%, with everyone else trailing by a significant distance. If BTS wins, it would make Song of the Year a K-pop sweep for the second year running, Rosé took the award last year for "APT.," her collaboration with Bruno Mars, becoming the first K-pop artist to do so.

BTS is also nominated in Best K-pop for "Swim" and Best Group. That last category carries some weight: the group won it four consecutive years from 2019 through 2022, and in 2020 they took home four awards total, including Best Pop, Best Group, Best K-pop, and Best Choreography for "On." After a four-year pause in group activities while members fulfilled their mandatory military service, the nominations mark a meaningful return to competition as a full unit.

Lisa's live debut and a stacked K-pop lineup

Lisa heads into tonight with four nominations, the most of any K-pop artist at this year's ceremony. Her solo track "Dream" is up for Best Pop and Best K-pop, as well as Best Cinematography and Best Editing. Beyond the awards, she's also set to give the first live performance of "Sawadika," the pre-release single from her upcoming EP Press Play, due October 23. She joins a performance lineup that includes Madonna, Shaboozey, Gunna, and Raye, and a debut live moment for "Sawadika" is exactly the kind of stage that tends to set fan timelines on fire.

BLACKPINK is nominated in Best K-pop for "Jump," and Jennie is in the running for Song of the Summer with "Dracula," her collaboration with Tame Impala. LE SSERAFIM's "Spaghetti," which features J-Hope of BTS, is also in the Best K-pop category.

Rookie group Cortis is one of the more interesting subplots. They're nominated for Best New Artist, a once-in-a-career category, alongside Best K-pop for "RedRed," and they're also in contention for Best Group alongside BTS, BLACKPINK, and Katseye. Katseye, for their part, have accumulated nominations across Best Choreography, Best K-pop, Best Group, and Song of the Summer, with "Hootie Frutti" adding to a list that already includes "Pinky Up."

The full Best K-pop field, "Swim" (BTS), "Jump" (BLACKPINK), "Dream" (Lisa), "RedRed" (Cortis), "Pinky Up" (Katseye), and "Spaghetti" (LE SSERAFIM featuring J-Hope), reads like a compact survey of where the genre is right now, from established superstars to acts still building their global footprint.

The wider picture

Among non-K-pop artists, Madonna leads all nominees with 11 nominations for Confessions II – The Film, her most in a single year and the highest tally for any artist since 1998. She's also set to open the show, the first time she has performed in the VMAs' opening slot since 2003. Taylor Swift follows with nine nominations, and Ariana Grande and Sabrina Carpenter each have seven. Seven of the top eight most-nominated artists this year are women.

Swift is widely expected to take Video of the Year and Artist of the Year for "The Fate of Ophelia." But with BTS holding a commanding lead in Song of the Year odds and the Best Group category historically kind to K-pop, SEVENTEEN won it in 2024, BLACKPINK took it back last year, tonight has the shape of a ceremony where K-pop doesn't just show up but competes for the biggest trophies on the board.